Definition
Projected usage
The quantity expected to be used based on recorded sales and defined recipe quantities, what should have left the shelf if every pour matched the build.
Formula
Projected usage = Σ (menu items sold × ingredient quantity per item)
Worked example
240 gin-and-tonics sold × 1.5 oz gin = 360 oz ≈ 10.65 L projected gin usage. If actual usage was 12.0 L and documented waste was 0.2 L, you still have ~1.15 L to explain after checking POS mappings and pour size.
When operators use this
Projected usage is the POS story. It only helps after well drinks are mapped to recipes. Toast, Square, Clover, or GoTab already know what rang; the map is the job. POS integrations and inventory variance are the next clicks. An unmapped house pour makes a careful stocktake look like a crime.
Common mistakes
A modifier that never made the recipe, a well vodka mapped to the call bottle, or a beer tap that rings a different SKU than the cooler will print a confident projected number that is wrong. Audit the top 20 well drinks before you trust the gap.
How ExactPour handles it
After POS sync, ExactPour maps sold items to recipes and accumulates projected depletion per product. That number sits next to actual usage on variance so the comparison is automatic instead of a VLOOKUP project.
Qualification
It is only as accurate as POS mappings, recipes, sales records, and unit conversions. A wrong build size scales error across every sale.