Definition
Inventory variance
The difference between measured usage and recipe- or transaction-based expected usage for the same period and scope, an investigation queue, not a verdict.
Formula
Usage variance = actual usage − projected usage − documented waste
Worked example
Actual usage of house whiskey: 10.0 L. Projected from POS recipes: 8.2 L. Documented waste/comps: 0.3 L. Variance = 10.0 − 8.2 − 0.3 = 1.5 L unexplained. At $28/L cost, that is about $42 in the period, enough to investigate, not enough to accuse without checking mappings and cutoffs first.
When operators use this
Use variance as an investigation queue after the stocktake, not as a verdict in the same breath. Start with high-dollar well SKUs. Read bar variance explained and variance investigation before a coaching conversation. shrinkage is the residual after you explain what you can.
Common mistakes
Treating a single noisy count as theft is how good bartenders quit. Unmapped house pours, a recipe that still says 1.25 oz after you moved to 1.5 oz, and a fill everyone rounds to half will all print as variance. Fix mappings and units first. Then look at the leftover dollars.
How ExactPour handles it
ExactPour computes projected inventory from POS sales and recipes, compares it to physical counts with fill levels, and flags items beyond tolerance. Reason codes on reconcile build a history for coaching without treating every gap as theft.
Qualification
A positive variance does not establish theft, over-pouring, or any other cause. Data errors often look identical to physical loss.